Gold Weaker, Bigger Price Move Pending

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The daily chart for gold shows a “collapse in volatility,” whereby the past three sessions have seen significantly quieter price action. This suggests that a bigger price move is right on the horizon, probably yet this week. Given that the daily gold chart remains bullish, odds favor that bigger price move being to the upside. August gold futures were last down $2.90 an ounce at 1,410.20. September Comex silver prices were last up $0.045 at $15.41 an ounce.

The just-released U.S. retail sales report for June showed a stronger-than-expected rise of 0.4%, which pushed the U.S. dollar index to solid gains on the day and in turn put some downside pressure on the gold market.

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session beings, and are at or near their record and contract highs. So far this week there have been no major news developments in the world to significantly move markets. Thus, typical lackluster mid-summertime trading has set in. However, a very busy day of U.S. economic data may shake loose the present summertime doldrums.

In overnight news, there was a downbeat economic report coming out of Germany, as the ZEW economic expectations index and current conditions index worsened in July. Germany is the economic workhorse for the European Union.

The other key “outside market” today sees Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading just below $60.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, and Treasury international capital data. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated for speeches today.

Technically, the gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at the June high of $1,442.90. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing August futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,384.70. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,421.60 and then at $1,425.00. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $1,411.20 and then at $1,400.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

September silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $15.625 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.70. First resistance is seen at $15.51 and then at $15.625. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $15.34 and then at Monday’s low of $15.185. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News


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