(Kitco News) – Gold and silver markets could not hold their modest overnight gains and are mildly lower in early-afternoon U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals are pressured by a solid rebound in the U.S. stock market to start the trading week. December gold futures were last down $0.60 an ounce at $1,222.60. December Comex silver was last down $0.038 at $14.205 an ounce.
Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher today on short covering and a corrective rebound after hitting a 13-month low overnight. Still, crude prices are down around 20% following the recent sharp declines. The drop in oil prices the past few weeks is an underlying bearish element for the metals markets, as crude is arguably the price leader of the raw commodity sector.
The other key outside market today finds the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher and not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. The strong greenback has also been a bearish outside market force working against the metals bulls.
Focus this week will be on the upcoming Group of 20 meeting late this week in Argentina that will feature a face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. The world’s two largest economies are locked in a heated trade war that appears to show no signs of de-escalating.
There is also talk in the marketplace just recently that the U.S. Federal Reserve may take a more dovish tone on its monetary policy due to notions the recent strong U.S. economic growth may be backing off. The Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss monetary policy in December.
Technically, the gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action begins to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the October high of $1,246.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,196.60. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,230.90 and then at the November high of $1,239.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,218.50 and then at $1,213.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $14.95 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.415 and then at last week’s high of $14.54. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $14.165 and then at $14.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 125 points at 275.45 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 287.10 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 257.45 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 278.15 cents and then at 281.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 273.70 cents and then at 270.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News