(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are weaker in early-afternoon U.S. trading today. Keener risk appetite is in the marketplace to start the trading week has the precious metals under pressure, as does a firmer U.S. dollar index today. It’s very likely going to take a geopolitical shock to the marketplace to jumpstart a decent rally in the safe-haven gold market. December gold futures were last down $2.70 an ounce at $1,193.50. December Comex silver was last down $0.202 at $14.51 an ounce.
World stock markets were mixed to firmer today, while U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher on news of a U.S.-Canada trade deal reached on Sunday. Chinese markets are closed until Friday for a public holiday.
Focus in Europe is on the new anti-establishment Italian government’s economic plan to address its fiscal and financial problems. The Euro currency has been pressured and the U.S. dollar boosted by this matter, which could be the next flash point in the currency and financial markets, which could also lift the safe-haven gold and silver markets. As the calendar has turned to October, traders and investors are half-way through what history shows can be the turbulent months of September and October—with no speedbumps yet encountered.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a three-week high. The greenback bulls have regained upside technical momentum the past three sessions. Meantime, November Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher, have hit a new contract and eight-month high nearing $75.00 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures are at a four-year high. Rising oil prices should be benefitting the metals markets more than is currently the case, if recent history is a gauge.
Technically, gold prices last week saw a bearish downside “breakout” from the recent trading range, which suggests a retest of the August low. The gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $1,220.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,167.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,196.50 and then at $1,200.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,184.30 and then at $1,180.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0
Silver prices closed near mid-range today on a corrective pullback from good gains Friday that produced a bullish weekly high close. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action hints at a market bottom being in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $15.07 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $13.965. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $15.755 and then at $14.500. Next support is seen at today’s low of $14.395 and then at $14.25. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 160 points at 278.90 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but recent good gains suggest a market bottom is in place. Also, a bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the 290.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 257.45 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 282.25 cents and then at 285.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 275.55 cents and then at 272.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News