Gold Prices Up Heading Into Uncertain Weekend

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are moderately higher in early U.S. trading Friday, on some new safe-haven demand heading into a weekend that could produce a U.S.-China trade deal, or find both countries digging in their heels for a very long trade war. And traders know the U.S.-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf are still high. August gold futures were last up $5.10 an ounce at 1,417.00. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.02 at $15.225 an ounce.

Asian stock markets were mostly weaker overnight, while European stock indexes were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Many markets are quieter and pausing amid the Group of 20 confab taking place in Japan that will feature a face-to-face meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi late Friday or this weekend. China has laid out several conditions for the U.S. to make a trade deal, but Trump may not accept them, including lifting sanctions on China telecommunications giant Huawei. The outcome of the U.S.-China summit meeting is still very uncertain and could have major implications for many markets come Monday morning.

In overnight news, the Euro zone June consumer price index came in at up 1.2%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations but still too low for the liking of the European Central Bank. This inflation report is one more element falling into the camp of the Euro zone monetary policy doves who want to see the ECB inject more stimulus into the economy.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $59.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Technically, the gold bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at this week’s high of $1,442.90. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing August futures prices below solid technical support at $1,400.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,427.80 and then at $1,430.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,411.30 and then at this week’s low of $1,401.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend alive. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.625. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $15.355 and then at the June high of $15.555. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $15.12 and then at $15.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News


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